The dust has settled and analysts have begun to pick apart the future of the Apple Watch. In particular, KGI Securities now predicts that Apple will ship around 15 million watches annually — half of the firm’s previous estimate of 20 to 30 million.
Why the considerable slash to Apple Watch sales projections? Simply put, the Apple Watch has been slow to sell right out of the gates, which led KGI Securities to adjust predictions to much lower numbers. Because Apple isn’t publishing any sale figures, KGI has looked to company’s delivery times to get a better idea.
The pre-order launch of the smartwatch led Apple to push delivery dates as far back as July, but according to Wareable, “if you’re ordering now for instance, an Apple Watch Sport has a shipping time of 3 – 5 weeks.” This change in delivery time is likely evidence of the slow demand, although other analysts are hopefully that availability of the Watch in stores will increase sales.
The Taptic Engine component of the Apple Watch was the primary reason for the inital slowdown in production when the device launched. Since Taptic Engine output hasn’t picked up yet, “it’s reasonable to believe that demand was higher around the launch,” says Wareable.
Though the numbers seem bleak, Apple iPad sales increased within the second year, just as the Apple Watch has the potential to do. With better production and some tweaks, the Apple Watch will could easily get back on track to dominate the wearables market.